Weekend Recap: Box Office down, "Blind Side" on top

Predicting who will win the box office hasn’t been as hard as I thought, but this was one of those weeks where I’m pretty pleased with my prediction. The Blind Side, its third week, surpassed New Moon to take No. 1.

Box office winners have been clear-cut with a few surprises since I started this prediction business back in September. I’m 12-of-13 having only missed one weekend when Saw VI failed me.

But what does that really say? Has the box office become that predictable (when it comes to No. 1 at least)? I think that we do live in the age of surefire success. With undying fan devotion to books (Twilight and Harry Potter films) and this inherent “need” to see sequels regardless of the crap we probably know we’re in for, when it comes to scheduling film releases, the studios know what to avoid. Couples Retreat was the only wide release film that weekend in October when it came out. Everyone else knew they didn’t stand a chance. No huge films came out Thanksgiving Day because studios knew New Moon would still be rolling. Next weekend, only Clint Eastwood’s Invictus will compete with the wide release of Disney’s The Princess and the Frog.

The Blind Side finally taking No. 1 three weeks in and the poor performance of the box office this weekend in general (as you’ll see below) is testament to the way movies are nowadays. People are spending a lot of money at the theaters and they want guarantees: overwhelmingly positive reviews, material they’re familiar with, stuff their kids will definitely enjoy and not find “too scary” and want to leave early, etc. “Blind Side” owes a lot to the most positive reviews of any wide release recently. Most well-received films come out in limited release at this time of year so they rarely impact the box office.

1. The Blind Side - $20 M (weekend) … $128.9 M (gross)
2. The Twilight Saga: New Moon - $15.4 M … $255.4 M
3. Brothers - $9.5 M … $9.5 M
4. A Christmas Carol - $7.8 M … $115.2 M
5. Old Dogs - $6.9 M … $33.9 M
6. 2012 - $6.8 M … $149 M
7. Armored - $6.5 M … $6.5 M
8. Ninja Assassin - $5 M … $29.8 M
9. Planet 51 - $4.4 M … $34 M
10. Everybody’s Fine - $3.8 M … $3.8 M

The biggest surprise this weekend was the performance of Brothers at the box office. It made on the high end of what I expected, but it was good enough for third place. This could be one of those films that continues to perform at the same level for the next few weeks, maintaining popularity as more and more Oscar films come out.

The biggest flop was undeniably Everybody’s Fine. Okay to favorable reviews, Robert De Niro and old people weren’t good enough for this film to be a moneymaker. With under $4 million, its times like this where I wonder if America read my blog and subsequent recommendations.

Noteworthy are great performances outside of the Top 10 by limited release films Up in the Air and The Princess and the Frog. That’s a predictor of the kind of success those films will likely have, especially with all the critical acclaim “Air” has been getting in particular.

My guess is this will be the last really poor weekend of the year. Disney will give the box office a boost next week followed by the anticipated release of Avatar.

Weekend Recap: "Blind Side" pushes "New Moon"

I would say about 10 percent of my box office projections are based on what I overhear/word-of-mouth, but when people I never expected started talking about how they saw or were going to see The Blind Side and that it was really good, I up that number. That being the case this Thanksgiving, New Moon was almost completely blind-sided this weekend.

Most projection artists such as myself are breathing a sigh of relief at the moment. I nailed my estimate that New Moon would fall to $40 million, but to expect “Blind Side” to climb upward after last week and nearly overtake it was not in my plans. I called for $18 million, a modest drop-off considering its strong opening weekend. What I didn’t account for was that if positive word of mouth builds at the holidays where nothing new is an obvious choice, then word will become a more powerful factor at the box office. “Blind Side” has more than $100 million total now in just two weeks. By comparison, 4-week old A Christmas Carol just eclipsed the $100 M mark.

Leftovers would best describe the taste of moviegoers this weekend. Only Disney’s Old Dogs managed to make the Top 5 of all the Thanksgiving new releases and unimpressively so. In fact, it was enough to earn this week’s biggest flop crown.

1. The Twilight Saga: New Moon - $42.9 M (weekend) … $230.9 M (gross)
2. The Blind Side - $40.1 M … $100.2 M
3. 2012 - $17.6 M … $138.4 M
4. Old Dogs - $16.9 M … $24.2 M
5. A Christmas Carol - $15.8 M … $104.9 M
6. Ninja Assassin - $13.1 M … $21.2 M
7. Planet 51 - $10.2 M … $28.5 M
8. Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire - $7 M … $32.4 M
9. The Fantastic Mr. Fox - $6.9 M … $10 M
10. The Road - $1.5 M … $1.9 M

Now is when I do a little venting. I’d been predicting all month that A Christmas Carol would start to do better the closer we came to the Holiday season and nothing ever happened so I gave up on that idea. Then boom, a near-30 percent surge keeps it at No. 5. I don’t expect any more increases, but it should decline at a slower rate than most films at this time of year.

My other failure was that I slightly underestimated the fan base for Ninja Assassin (even though “Carol” kept it out of the Top 5 for me) and overestimated the wide release of Fantastic Mr. Fox, which did well, but only half of $15 M well and even then I thought I was underestimating.

I’m happy, however, because of my moral victory over Old Dogs. I flagged the shit out of this movie and enough other people did for it to pull just $16.9 M. Suddenly nobody’s slobbering all over creator Walt Becker’s over-the-hill movies anymore. He can forget about his plans for a future Christmas movie likely entitled “Yule Logs.”

The Road also impressed making the top ten in 111 theaters only.

Weekend Recap: New Moon, New Record

Whoa. I knew you people liked vampires, but you really like vampires. If you haven’t heard by now, The Twilight Saga: New Moon now ranks third in all-time opening weekends with a whopping $140 million take. It also ranks No. 1 in single day ticket sales with the $72.7 million it made on Friday alone.

It’s a new milestone for bad movies trying to kill at the box office. “New Moon” is now the most successful movie based on a book ever. Depending on how the total gross shakes out, “New Moon” could eclipse (unfortunate pun) every Harry Potter film, all of which were better than this movie, probably. Thanks to your unfailing support of this book series and craving to see those stories come to life on the big screen no matter the cost or quality, producers everywhere are going to try and give us more stuff like the “Twilight” series.

So you had your itch scratched to see Bella, Edward and Jacob’s next adventure in abstinent romance, but is that worth the message of “who cares about quality, give us familiarity” being broadcast in dollar signs to the doorstep of every producer in Hollywood?

I can’t say I don’t love it when books that I’m a fan of make it to the big screen. There’s an undeniable allure there, but I can’t say I’d go opening weekend no matter what if the movie got a scathing review.

There’s already massive oppression of adapted material over original material in the movies. There was a report recently published across most film sites pointing out how few films that won Best Picture were original works. The success of “New Moon” (while not part of the Oscar conversation, obviously) is more ammunition for producers to say no to aspiring writers with original ideas. In other words, for every District 13 there’s a “New Moon” reminding producers that it’s a far better investment to make a movie from something that already has a fan base/following.

So yes, if you saw “New Moon,” particularly if you’re not a big fan but you went anyway, you should feel a bit guilty after reading this post. As exciting as new records are, they shake the industry. I’m sure this week alone studios will secure the rights to 50 different vampire or romance or tweenage-centeric books and more than ever those projects will be put into production whereas previously there was skepticism.

1. The Twilight Saga: New Moon - $140.7 M (weekend) … $140.7 M (gross)
2. The Blind Side - $34.1 M … $34.1 M
3. 2012 - $26.4 M … $108.1 M
4. Planet 51 - $12.28 M … $12.28 M
5. A Christmas Carol - $12.27 M … $79.8 M
6. Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire - $10.9 M … $21.3 M
7. The Men Who Stare at Goats - $2.8 M … $27.7 M
8. Couples Retreat - $1.9 M … $105 M
9. The Fourth Kind - $1.7 M … $23.3 M
10. This Is It - $1.6 M … $70.2 M

Appropriately, inspirational true sports story The Blind Side blindsided most prognosticators to be the biggest surprise. I had pegged it as a possible dark horse but nevertheless predicted it to finish only fourth, so I can’t give myself too much credit.

For a sports film, that’s an impressive pull and you can give all the credit to Miss Sandra Bullock. Make no mistake, the difference between $20 and 35 million is definitely Bullock and her undeniable appeal to women filmgoers.

There’s no obvious flop this week, but 2012 dropping off as much as it did in its second week says something about the film’s long-term staying power. It might not make the Top 5 next weekend.

A Christmas Carol also went down more than expected. I figured the closer it got to Christmas, the better off this film would be, but it’s not close enough to Christmas yet. Perhaps the lesser drop off will occur next weekend, but almost a month into its run, that might be tough.

Out of the spotlight, Precious continued to climb upward taking in nearly twice as much as last weekend in an additional 455 theaters, but not enough to hang with the big releases. Also continuing to improve is An Education, the English indie ‘60s period romantic drama partly written by Nick Hornby (About a Boy, High Fidelity)

Check back for my weekend preview on Wednesday thanks to the holiday. I’ll still be predicting the 3-day weekend totals, but I’d have an unfair advantage by looking at the Wednesday and Thursday numbers to tell what would happen over the weekend.

Weekend Recap: The world kinda digs its own armageddon

Isn’t it kind of masochistic for the citizens of the world to spend $225 million on a movie about their own destruction? The amount of money that 2012 made at the domestic and global box office this weekend leads me to believe that we’d all squeal with joy if the world were to actually fall apart.

In fact, I’m convinced that should humanity experience an apocalypse, we’d be so giddy with laughter because despite the moral peril, we’d be entertained. Some would say it was the most excitement they’d had in years.

So note to filmmakers: if you want to make a realistic end-of-the-world disaster movie, you should write that your characters are getting a fun adrenaline rush from all their dodging of debris and narrow escapes from the clutches of doom. That way you can make millions while also being fairly realistic. People will say “now that film, that’s the way it’s really gonna happen.” You can laugh all the way to the bank and be a sadist.

The surprise of the weekend is along the same lines. In 174 theaters, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire made nearly $6 million, averaging $33,000 or so per theater. Considering the difficult subject matters of incestuous rape and domestic abuse among other things, that’s an incredible feat. So not only were people okay with that, but they also wanted it.

Some of you might be thinking “well it got such good reviews,” but early season Oscar contenders don’t do this well at the box office historically (as far as I’m aware).

I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. This has been an ongoing trend in film and it’s part of why we love movies: they allow us to experiment with situations or people’s lives that we would never wish to deal with ourselves in a 100 percent risk-free setting. It’s a whole other dimension to the notion of movies as escapism.

1. 2012 - $65.2 M (weekend) … $65.2 M (gross)
2. A Christmas Carol - $22.3M … $63.2 M
3. Precious: Based on the Novel Pusy by Sapphire - $5.9 M … $8.7 M
4. The Men Who Stare at Goats - $5.9 M … $23 M
5. This Is It - $5.1 M … $67.2 M
6. The Fourth Kind - $4.6 M … $20.4 M
7. Couples Retreat - $4.2 M … $102 M
8. Paranormal Activity - $4 M … $103.7 M
9. Law Abiding Citizen - $3.8 M … $67.2 M
10. The Box - $3.2 M … $13.2 M

The Box continued to be the biggest flop falling further and harder down the box office ranks all the way to No. 10. Messing with my “slide ‘em down” theory, This Is It also lost ground to last week’s releases including “Precious” and The Men Who Stare at Goats. I haven’t heard any news about extending the Michael Jackson film another week, but with the holiday films coming out Friday, it could be tough for the movie to get anything but the bottom of the barrel.

Meanwhile, those October films keep going strong. Couples Retreat just won’t die, jumping up in the order to No. 7 in its sixth week.

What deserves the most attention is the steep drop off between “Christmas” and “Precious.” Moviegoers are ready for the Holiday season and they showed it by bandwagon-hopping the first big-budget blockbuster of the month. All the films that managed to stay up in the Top 10 are going to take massive cuts next weekend with the big release schedule including The Road, the next “Twilight” movie and family film Planet 51.

Weekend Recap: Top 5 are outside of the Box

For the first time in Movie Muse history (and a mighty three months it’s been), I’ve recommended a movie that America greeted with a resounding “aw, hell no.”

I was hoping warm weather this weekend across the normally colder parts of the U.S. would aid my request last Friday for a nation-wide boycott of A Christmas Carol, but instead, it appears that the film that really flopped was the one I promoted: Richard Kelly’s The Box. Then again, I didn’t make it a point to get out and see the movie this weekend either.

My anti-early Christmas crusade did win a small victory in a sense, however, because no film with a $200 million budget that opens with only $30 million can feel good about itself. Speaking of $30 M, I was pretty dead-on with that prediction, a number below most prognosticators’ expectations. But does that smart pick make up for thinking The Box would make three times what it did? I don’t know, but it easily deserves to be this weekend’s biggest flop.

1. A Christmas Carol - $30 M (weekend) … $30 M (gross)
2. This Is It - $13.2 M … $57 M
3. The Men Who Stare at Goats - $12.7 M … $12.7 M
4. The Fourth Kind - $12.2 M … $12.2 M
5. Paranormal Activity - $8.8 M … $97.1 M
6. The Box - $7.6 M … $7.6 M
7. Couples Retreat - $6.1 M … $95.7 M
8. Law Abiding Citizen - $6 M … $60.7 M
9. Where the Wild Things Are - $4.2 M … $69.2 M
10. Astro Boy - $2.6 M … $15.1M

My guess is that poor word of mouth (such as “that movie was way too far out there”) and mixed reviews in general (and a scathing one of Cameron Diaz) were among the top reasons keeping people from seeing it.

I also thought America wouldn’t buy into the fake documentary alien abduction horror being promoted in The Fourth Kind, but I misfired there. Not being a mainstream horror fan, I’m clearly not cut out quite yet to guess what titillates American scream-lovers. Consequently, the film’s reasonable success made a big gash in Paranormal Activity’s profits. Naturally, had I thought “Kind” would be a success, I would’ve had to predict a bigger fall for “Activity.”

Another worthy note is of course The Men Who Stare At Goats. I think this film is undeniable proof of George Clooney’s box-office pull. Positive but not stellar reviews combined with America’s full acceptance that totally weird comedies are cool if George Clooney is in them made this finish above expectations for the genre and at No. 3

I’d normally consider The Box the biggest surprise, but in 18 theaters only, Lee Daniels’ Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire made nearly $2 million, good enough for No. 12. The film has had moviegoers at odds between hearing that the subject is both extremely difficult and the performances Oscar-worthy, but clearly intrigue won out this far. It will be interesting to follow the film’s success and see if it holds its own when other Oscar contenders start hitting theaters later in the month and early in December.

Weekend Recap: King of Popcorn

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Sony has announced it will extend This Is It to a third release week. The Michael Jackson behind-the-scenes footage easily moonwalked into first place with $23.2 million at the box office this weekend and made a tremendous killing overseas. In its first five days, it’s taken in a total gross of $102.9 million world-wide.

Well, that’s all there is to say about that.

In other box office news, the biggest surprise was that Law Abiding Citizen, which I predicted to fall out of the Top 5, jumped back up to third while Saw VI was the biggest flop dropping 62.7 percent from last week into 6th place – and on Halloween weekend no less.

1. This Is It - $23.2 M (weekend) … $34.4 (gross)
2. Paranormal Activity - $16.4 M … $84.6 M
3. Law Abiding Citizen - $7.4 M … $51.5 M
4. Couples Retreat - $6.5 M … $87 M
5. Where the Wild Things Are - $5.9 M … $62.6 M
6. Saw VI - $5.3 M … $22.5 M
7. Astro Boy - $3.5 M … $11.3 M
8. The Stepfather - $3.2 M … $24.5 M
9. Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant - $3.1 M … $10.8 M
10. Amelia - $3 M … $8.3M

Some other interesting facts: despite adding 459 new theaters this week, Paranormal Activity dropped just over 20 percent this weekend. Also, Rob Zombie’s Halloween II, which came out at the end of August, made about $445 thousand this weekend thanks to the holiday – that’s a 1,378.1 percent increase compared to last week. The Final Destination and Jennifer’s Body also saw gains over the Halloween weekend.

A bunch of excellent competitors hit theaters this Friday, so the box office should shake off its recent decline of the last couple weeks. Check back Friday for another preview.

Weekend Recap 10.23.09 - Not as many people "Saw" it

I’m sad to announce that the streak has ended at 6. On Friday, I chose Saw VI to take the box office crown as the “Saw” films have so often done in the past, but it was horror competitor Paranormal Activity that climbed all the way to No. 1 this week.

I’m now batting .850 or so at the box office this fall, but it was only a matter of time. I mean, I’m not invulnerable. In fact, I even had a feeling when I wrote Friday: “I think I could be horribly wrong here…” that I could have completely blown this week’s predictions. When it comes down to it, I grossly overestimated one movie and doubted the buzz of another.

1. Paranormal Activity - $21.1 M (weekend) ... $61.6 M (gross)
2. Saw VI - $14.1 ... $14.1
3. Where the Wild Things Are - $14 M ... $53.5 M
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $12.4 M ... $40 M
5. Couples Retreat - $10.6 M ... $77.7 M
6. Astro Boy - $6.7 M ... $6.7 M
7. Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant - $6.3 M ... $6.3 M
8. The Stepfather - $6.2 M ... $20.1 M
9. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $5.2 M ... $114.8 M
10. Zombieland - $4.2 M ... $67.2 M

Let’s start with my choice of Astro Boy as the No. 2 film. “Astro” finished No. 6 and just barely, making about $6 million when the budget was $60 million and the film was released in 3,000 plus theaters. That constitutes this weekend’s biggest flop. I think where I erred was not checking the distributor. Summit Entertainment has not had any successful kids films and probably didn’t advertise all that well. Not being a child, little of their marketing reached me, obviously, so I took a stab.

The biggest surprise is really that Saw VI drastically underperformed. I was calling for $27 million and it barely made half that at $14 million, good enough for second ahead of Where the Wild Things Are, but barely. The wide release of “Activity” was the big factor, something I knew but was unsure how to estimate. Normally you don’t have to take into account a film’s release getting bigger and its buzz growing.

Perhaps “Saw” fans are finally giving up on their once beloved torture films and in combination with Halloween nearing and “Activity” getting more and more popular, it wasn’t meant to be this year. I’m sure when all is said and done, there will be money made on this film, but the next films are going to need to find a way of stepping their game up.

In terms of what I got right, I predicted Cirque du Freak would be a mega-bust and indeed it was. I at least have my early fall movie predictions intact. Nothing I’ve said would be bad has turned out good (quality speaking) or vice-versa.

Overall, this was a week mostly for old releases. The overall Top 12 take was one of the highest of the fall, but it fell 17 percent from last week. The new releases did poorer, but the solid films at the bottom of the Top 10 performed better than most other films in those low positions earlier this season.

Weekend Recap 10.16.09 - Wild box office rumpus for WB

It probably comes as no surprise to you that Where the Wild Things Are took the weekend box office, but it might be a bit more surprising to learn that it’s not because of families.

Personally, I had no doubts about the older demographics feeding solidly into the weekend gross, but did I expect them to be the driving force behind it? Not exactly. Families with children made up just 27 percent of “Wild Things”’ weekend take.

As last Friday neared, I suppose I was hearing a lot of buzz from parents about concern for taking children. During early screenings of “Wild Things,” children apparently cried (out of fear, not because they were touched emotionally, would be my guess) and although the next edit supposedly eliminated that problem, you know how parents are.

That’s why I geared my review toward the demographic of parent wondering if this is actually a kids’ movie. My response was that I felt it would be a great film for people who have already done the childhood thing and one that could be appreciated and understood to some degree by a child age nine or older.

Then again, if a parent knows their kid, they know if he/she can sit through a serious movie and also if people dressed up in giant weird animal suits scares the bejeezes out him/her. I worry a lot of smart children who’d find something to like about the movie didn’t get to go because his/her parents suck.

Then you have the parents like the mom I saw at the movie theater Friday, who took her three-year-old child for a potty break because he couldn’t hold it for the duration of The Stepfather. I suppose I should’ve taken into account the family demographic when I guessed “Stepfather” wouldn’t hit the Top 5. How silly of me.

1. Where the Wild Things Are - $32.7 M (weekend) … $32.7 (gross)
2. Law Abiding Citizen - $21 M … $21 M
3. Paranormal Activity - $19.6 M … $33.1 M
4. Couples Retreat - $17.2 M … $62.6 M
5. The Stepfather - $11.6 M … $11.6 M
6. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $8 M … $108.2 M
7. Zombieland - $7.6 M … $60.6 M
8. Toy Story/Toy Story 2 3D - $3 M … $28.5 M
9. Surrogates - $1.91 M … $36.3 M
10. The Invention of Lying - $1.9 M … $15.5 M

“Stepfather” will have to enjoy it while it lasts, however, when Saw VI enters the picture next weekend and Paranormal Activity gets an even wider release, most likely. “Activity” opened in an extra 600 theaters this weekend and saw profits go up by 148 percent. It wasn’t enough, however, to beat out Law Abiding Citizen.

“Citizen” pulled an impressive amount for my biggest surprise, considering no other film this season has made that much in the No. 2 spot. It was enough to really hurt Couples Retreat, which after being king last weekend fell nearly 50 percent , good enough to finish where I thought “Citizen” would.

For biggest flop, I have to say I was disappointed that Zombieland fell from second to seventh. The novelty of “Citizen” and “Stepfather” proved too much for that demographic it appears, even though Zombieland has gotten the better reviews.

In other news, Coen brothers’ film A Serious Man was one of the few other films to climb upward this weekend. Check back Wednesday and I’ll have a review of that one for you.

Weekend Recap 10.9.09 - Some Paranormal Activity at the box office

I don’t know what’s better: super-low-budget horror film Paranormal Activity breaking insane box office records or the fact that I don’t have to talk about Couples Retreat because of it.

If you haven’t heard of Paranormal Activity yet, don’t worry. It only means that you don’t follow trending topics on Twitter, which is acceptable. Believe me, however, you are far from done hearing about this movie if this is your first time.

“Activity” is what The Blair Witch Project was to cinematic lore only it’s apparently ten times better. Made off a $10 ,000 budget by an Israeli-American named Oren Peli, it’s a camcorder-shot film about a couple moving into a suburban home that encounters a demonic presence.

But it must really be about a hell of a lot more than that to pull a completely unprecedented $7.9 million dollars out of only 160 theaters nation-wide. That’s nearly $50,000 dollars per movie theater. That means Peli could have gone to one of these theaters, sat around collecting the money himself all weekend, and made a profit on his movie.

This weekends actuals:

1. Couples Retreat - $34.2 M (weekend) … $34.2 M (gross)
2. Zombieland - $14.8 M … $47.6 M
3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $11.5 M … $95.7 M
4. Paranormal Activity - $7.9 M … $9.1 M
5. Toy Story/Toy Story 2 3D - $7.7 M … $22.7 M
6. Surrogates - $4.2 M … $32.7 M
7. The Invention of Lying - $3.3 M … $12.3 M
8. Whip It - $2.8 M … $8.8 M
9. Capitalism: A Love Story - $2.6 M … $9 M
10. Fame - $2.5 M … $20 M

So the question becomes, how did “Activity” pull this off? Two weekends ago, it was being released in only 12 theaters nation-wide, making $77.8 thousand. The number of theaters expanded to 33 and then to 160. Word is that Paramount was only expanding this movie to people who “demanded” it. Theaters that begged for it and people online that asked for it.

Apparently Paramount concentrated on going viral for this film to create the buzz it knew it would have because of the film’s quality (they had apparently proposed to Peli to reshoot the film with a bigger budget, which says a lot of their confidence in it). I had seen a lot of articles online and kept glancing over them until I saw so many that I had to at least see what this was about.

Make no mistake ladies and gents, we are the verge of cultural phenomenon. If just Internet buzz can get that many tickets sold in that few theaters, imagine what a wide release of 1,000 could do. Screw Saw VI, this is where it’s at. Depending on how big they expand, box office predictions will be tough next week. I’m not thinking this film could jump to No. 1, but it’s easier to predict films when they follow the trend and lose money week to week, not gain more of it.

To recap the rest of the Box Office, I was dead on, although this weeks’ biggest surprise, “Activity,” came close to topping even the “Toy Story” movies. This week’s biggest flop, The Invention of Lying did quite the opposite of stay strong, dropping more than 50% to No. 7, that’s steeper than all the rest of last week’s Top 5. That tells you just how many couples went to see “Retreat” after all and sucked away “Lying’s” audience.

Box Office Recap (Weekend 10.2): I should be paid to do this

If predicting box office winners were baseball, I'd be batting 1.000. In my fifth week, I've done it again, picking Zombieland, which made nearly $25 million this weekend -- plenty good enough for first place. But more impressively, do you recall the rest of my Top 5? Nailed it.

So, movie media, where's my big job offer? Yea, I get it, take your time.

I figured to start recapping the box office on late Mondays (when the actual totals come in) instead of recapping and predicting all in one post on Friday mornings. This post will be for celebrating my prediction victories and rambling about the results and Fridays will be more reserved for previewing the weekend and straight up predictions. Should make the posts a bit more efficient.

With that said, here were the results at the box office this weekend.

1. Zombieland - $24.7 M (weekend) ... $24.7 M (gross)

2. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs - $15.8 M ... $81.5 M

3. Toy Story/Toy Story 2 3D - $12.4 M ... $12.4 M

4. Surrogates - $7.2 M ... $26.2 M

5. The Invention of Lying - $7 M ... $7 M

6. Whip It - $4.65 M ... $4.6 M

7. Fame - $4.62 M ... $16.5 M

8. Capitalism: A Love Story - $4.4 M ... $4.8 M

9. The Informant! - $3.6 M ... $26.4

10. Love Happens - $2.7 M ... $18.8 M

Top 5 Summary: Just as a I called it, although I'm fortunate Surrogates int its second week just beat out The Invention of Lying, but that's just being picky. "Meatballs" stayed strong, only dropping down by a third of last week's take and it looks this meatball will be rolling to another Top 5 finish next week.

Biggest surprise: I predicted it, but Ricky Gervais and Warner Bros. have got to be feeling pretty good about "Lying" finishing Top 5. The chick power combo of Ellen Page and Barrymore was not much of a match for it, which is a victory, even if small. They needed a big first weekend with the looming Rom-Com giant Couples Retreat due out this weekend, so they can enjoy it while it lasts. Although they'll need over twice that to meet budget, with enough positive word of mouth they might just do it.

Biggest flop: Considering there was some good buzz being generated by it, I was surprised to see Pandorum fall out of the Top 10 in only its second week, taking a cut of over 50 percent and falling from No. 6 to No. 12. For a movie with about a $40 million budget, to barely gross a quarter of that amount has to be devastating for young distributor Overture Films.

Box Office Ramblings: Thank God it's District 9

As I prayed for so fervently, Peter Jackson produced sci-fi alien actioner "District 9" took first at the Box Office with $37.4 M this past weekend. I'm not trying to see to it that all films I like cash in at the box office, but like I said in my review, this is the kind of small budget great story film that you want to see more of in Hollywood. In other words, less "Transformers" (est. $200 M budget) and more "District 9" (est. $30 M budget). Hollywood needs as many examples as it can get of great stories getting turned into great films for cheap ("District 9" already surpassed its production budget), and that's a real rarity these days for science-fiction films.

The competition wasn't easy either, with date target "The Time Traveler's Wife," Will Ferrell/Adam McKay-produced comedy "The Goods" and Japanese animation master Hayao Miyazaki's "Ponyo" hitting theaters and finishing in the top 10, but "District 9" endured the hype and it will be interesting to see what happens to it next week.

That doesn't mean the box office was all things happy this weekend as far as I'm concerned. "G.I. Joe," which was not screened for critics because of how they would tear it apart, moved down only one spot out of first and into second, taking in another $22.3 M and bringing its gross to nearly $100 M, doing what guinea pig kids actioner "G-Force" did in a month in just two weeks despite an older demographic. This is almost entirely counteracting the message of "District 9." I haven't see "G.I. Joe" and maybe I'll take a fly on it on DVD, but when stuff like D9 is out there, nobody should be giving it a second look.

The biggest flop by far was "The Goods" starring Entourage's Jeremy Piven as a used-car salesman with great coercive powers, with just $5.6 M. The effort just wasn't there to promote this film other than the same exact commercial spots with the same clips as the one trailer, despite okay reviews from critics. Compare this a year ago to "Tropic Thunder" and the advertising isn't even close in magnitude. Meanwhile, Judd Apatow's comedy "Funny People" has fizzled out to No. 10 after only its third weekend ($3 M). Its gross is about $20 M short of budget, making it a rough summer for Judd after "Year One" and now this, though nothing choked like "Year One."

Next week will be a competition to see if D9 can hold off Quentin Tarantino's "Inglourious Basterds." By comparison, Tarantino's last big directorial feature was "Kill Bill Vol. 1," which took just $20 M in 2003, so it could be close. Everyone else though should surely come in below it.

1District 9 (2009)$37.4M/$37.4M

2G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra (2009)$22.3M/$98.6M

3The Time Traveler's Wife (2009)$18.6M/$18.6M

4Julie & Julia (2009)$12.1M/$43.3M

5G-Force (2009)$6.92M/$99.1M

6The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard (2009)$5.64M/$5.64M

7Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)$5.14M/$284M

8The Ugly Truth (2009)$4.45M/$77.5M

9Gake no ue no Ponyo (2008)$3.59M/$3.59M

10Funny People (2009)$3.01M/$47.9M