Weekend Preview (12.11.09)

Welcome back, Disney.

After five or ten years (depending on if you count anything after Tarzan), Disney delivers a new feature-length 2D animated film. What a statement to be making in 2009, the year of the 3D explosion in movie theaters.

Singing and dancing, talking animals, princesses and more, The Princess and the Frog offers at least the slightest promise of returning us for an hour and a half, to a time where all was right with the world. In an age where everything is speeding up and the economy is down, what a momentary pause from reality this film looks to be. “Frog” should do well and be received well as it begs of us to simplify – to acquiesce to classic stories of morality instead of those with commerciality.

Also entering the picture is Oscar hopeful Invictus, the Clint Eastwood film about Nelson Mandela (Morgan Freeman) trying to use rugby to reunite South Africa in the wake of apartheid. Matt Damon also stars in the season’s one true uplifting biographical drama. The talent here is simply too good to be passed on (or make for a bad movie for that matter).

Add the expansion of Up in the Air this weekend to 72 theaters and there’s reason to get excited about movies this weekend. I feel like I haven’t been this enthusiastic about a weekend in a month.

My Endorsement: You can’t go wrong with almost anything coming out this weekend, but I have to recommend The Princess and the Frog because, quite frankly, when was the last time you got to see a movie like this in theaters? I haven’t even had the chance to get excited about a Disney 2D animated film in years so that prospect alone is enough to get me to theaters this weekend.

Red Flag: Wow, usually I have no idea what to recommend, not what to flag. I suppose don’t retread any of last weekend’s films. I mean, even the really limited releases this weekend look good (The Lovely Bones, A Single Man, Broken Lizard’s The Slammin’ Salmon). Don’t be stupid and go see Everybody’s Fine or Armored.

Box Office Prediction: I’m thrilled and ecstatic to be able to choose The Princess and the Frog for the box office winner this week. After such a downer weekend at the movies last weekend, the BO is primed for a new champion and “Frog” has the release (3400+ theaters), good press, reputation (Disney) and nostalgic buzz to do it. Judging by how Disney 2D films did in the late ‘90s when they were still hyped, I’m going to guess about $45 million.

Next will be Invictus. I’m calling for a modest $12 million, which you wouldn’t think good enough for second place, but this weekend it definitely should be (and provided I underestimated it, I have cushion).

For third and fourth place we go to the early Holiday season champions, The Blind Side and The Twilight Saga: New Moon, respectively. My guess is also $10 and $9 million respectively. I don’t expect such mainstream films to be leapfrogged by any films it beat out last weekend, but if anyone could do it it would be my No. 5 film, Brothers. A Christmas Carol should finally flicker out thanks to Disney’s new film don't expect it to finish all that far behind.

1. The Princess and the Frog
2. Invictus
3. The Blind Side
4. The Twilight Saga: New Moon
5. Brothers

Weekend Preview (12.4.09)

There’s always a one-week burnout period in this second weekend after Thanksgiving. We all sort of hit this wall when we realize Christmas isn’t actually for another three weeks and that we have to work and shop. The novelty wears off briefly but then maybe there’s a little snowfall and you hear some Christmas music and suddenly you get the spirit back.

The box office experiences that same kind of lull. Although last year we had the remake of The Day the Earth Stood Still at this time of year, the big budget blockbusters usually hold out until at least the second (I Am Legend) or third (The Lord of the Rings) weekends in December. Naturally, the anticipated Avatar comes to us in another couple of weeks.

Instead, we’ve got uncertain hodgepodge this weekend. The widest release is Robert De Niro feel-good Christmas movie Everybody’s Fine going to 2,133 theaters nationwide, followed by Brothers, the domestic drama/thriller with Queen Amidala, Donnie Darko and Spider-Man. In about 1,900 theaters is Armored, the crime action flick starring Matt Dillon and up-and-comer Columbus Short.

My Endorsement: Is it too early to plug Up in the Air yet (released in 15 theaters)? I guess so. My recommendation is for leftovers. The Blind Side has been getting solid marks from just about everyone and there are still quality indies such as Precious, A Serious Man and An Education out there. I’d like to hype Brothers but early reviews are mixed and I was never all that sold on it to begin with.

Red Flag: Everybody’s Fine and you’ll be too if you go see this movie, but don’t expect a whole lot more than that. I flagged this movie in my preview because I’m still convinced nothing actually happens in this movie other than De Niro playing with little kids and lots of dialogue working out family issues. If you still want to see it, however, don’t go before dinner or you’ll be sure to be trampled by senior citizens hitting up the early bird.

Box Office Prediction: Weekends like this are tough with a trio of lame duck new releases (in that they’re not hyped, they’re in genres that don’t make a lot of money and they’re not being released in that many theaters). Everybody’s Fine has the best chance of any of them to take first place, but if so, it won’t be by much. I just don’t see it making more than $20 million, which isn’t good enough for first based on what New Moon and The Blind Side have been doing.

All that figured out, I’m going to be daring and choose the best-reviewed wide release film of the holiday season to hang around for No. 1, and that’s The Blind Side. Call me crazy for picking a film in its third week, but I don’t see this film falling more than 45 percent, so I’m picking it to win with $25 million.

Second, I’m scared to bet against the tweenies that want extra helpings of Taylor Lautner’s 8-pack on the big screen. I expect a near 50 percent cut for The Twilight Saga: New Moon, but good enough for second place with $21 million or thereabouts.

Third is my reasonable place to slot Everybody’s Fine considering its limited release. I think most people are going to overestimate this film and I don’t want to be the one to do it. I’m projecting $18 million.

This is where it gets tough. New releases with not that many theaters all things considered versus the box office winners from early November on their way down. I’m projecting 10-12 million for a few different films, so I’m going to have to take stabs. 2012 has done fairly well and has no new competition genre-wise, so I’m guessing $12 million.

Last, I’m going to take a chance with Armored at $10 million, which I also think is where A Christmas Carol will end up and Brothers just below that with $7-9 M, which is also where I expect Old Dogs to fall given its bad opening and probably Ninja Assassin as well. It’s going to be really scrunched in the bottom half of the Top 10 for sure.

1. The Blind Side
2. New Moon
3. Everybody’s Fine
4. 2012
5. Armored

Weekend Preview (11.25.09)

I have a lot of fond memories of seeing movies on Thanksgiving Break as a child. After nearly three months of school, to go to the movie theater and enjoy something during a weeknight knowing you don’t have to go to school the next day is pure bliss.

The movies I remember seeing the most? Toy Story and Toy Story 2. Talk about going to see a great movie with that precious time off of school. This was back before Disney/Pixar’s regular slot was early June, when they owned Thanksgiving week. Now, they still have a piece of it, but Old Dogs is far from Toy Story.

This would’ve been a great time for The Princess and the Frog, but apparently they are tiptoeing and wading slowly in with that one, trying to generate positive reviews with a limited release first and avoiding direct competition with The Fantastic Mr. Fox. Instead, we get middle-aged actor crap.

That doesn’t mean the Thanksgiving movie tradition should end. My preference, however, is not relegated to PG. Today, we get the overdue release of The Road and even then that’s not as wide as initially expected. I’ll still be making it my priority, however, to see it.

Other options are stylish action flick Ninja Assassin and as previously stated, the wide release of Wes Anderson’s stop motion cartoon The Fantastic Mr. Fox.

My Endorsement: Film festival buzz has been so positive for The Road, I was of the book and I think Viggo Mortensen is perfect for the father. With a bit of action to keep things interesting and small roles by Guy Pearce and Robert Duvall thrown in, this is sure to be worthwhile.

Red Flag: Much like its director’s rhyming predecessor starring John Travolta entitled Wild Hogs, Old Dogs might be good for a few laughs, if the old blunt-object-to-the-balls gag gets you every time. This will be exactly the kind of movie you’ll be glad you didn’t pay for and instead saw for free on the airplane on your way to Spring Break. There’s also no William H. Macy, who made Wild Hogs work at all, plain and simple. Seth Green is also not a redeeming factor. Avoid.

Box Office Prediction: When a film conquers the box office as mightily as The Twilight Saga: New Moon did, it’s hard to figure just how closer to Earth it might fall in just one week. Considering it was poorly reviewed and received by most people, I’m using Spider-Man 3 as a comparison. The only difference here is that Spider-Man has a bigger following and nothing strong enough came out that next week to compete. Having said that, it’s reasonable to expect, The Twilight Saga: New Moon to make about $40 million in its second week, which would be good enough beat Old Dogs no matter how many new tricks they may or more likely may not have learned. The film should eek out second place, however, with something near $30 million

Then it’s time to look at returners. The Blind Side is really the only movie working with positive reviews as it rolls into week 2. Modestly predicting how far it will fall, I’m going to say about $18 million.

Next, I’m going to slate The Fantastic Mr. Fox with about $15 million, though I think I’m grossly underestimating it here due to Thanksgiving weekend and all. With positive reviews and at least the appearance of being kid-friendly, it should do very well in wide release.

That’s also the reason I’ve got 2012 at the five spot. It should earn around the $15 million mark as well, but I’ve got more faith in “Mr. Fox” earning more.

I feel pretty good about this prediction; my research was more thorough than usual. We’ll see how it shakes out.

1. New Moon
2. Old Dogs
3. The Blind Side
4. The Fantastic Mr. Fox
5. 2012

Weekend Preview (11.20.09)

This is one of those weekends where you avoid movie times after 5 and before 9 pm. Unless you are an adolescent girl or you like being around crowds of them (if the latter applies to you, I hope to God you’re an adolescent boy), pick your showtimes wisely.

The first blockbuster of the season, The Twilight Saga: New Moon, hit theaters at midnight. The film adaptation of the second book in Stephenie Meyer’s series of vampire romance novels had record-breaking pre-sales and is surely poised to outdo its predecessor, a film that made about $70 million in its opening weekend.

So I reiterate: vampire romance. That’s all you need to hear to know what the crowds will be like in theaters all over the country.

For those of you non-fans wondering if it will be worth swimming through seas of Twi-hards to learn if New Moon will be better than the last film that you took a chance on, don’t count on it. Early reviews have said this is fan-fare only and that the believability doesn’t get any better from Twilight. With Chris Weitz at the helm I thought this would at least be more entertaining, but it looks to be another cash-earning clunker for the series.

There’s not much else to get excited about this weekend. Sony tries to take the family audience from A Christmas Carol with its alien invasion role-reversal comedy Planet 51, the studio’s first major attempt at computer animation feature films which will likely fall short.

The other contender is inspirational football drama The Blind Side based on the true story of Baltimore Ravens rookie tackle Michael Oher. It’s the only film drawing positive early reviews (60% on Rotten Tomatoes), yet one I flagged in my preview because of my dislike for Sandra Bullock and tired sports movies. As a sports fan, however, I’m impressed that they used the real college coaches that recruited Oher in the movie. Other than that, not interested.

My Endorsement: By now, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire has probably reached a theater near you. With no must-sees coming out (unless you’re a Twilight fan), it might finally be time to see that first difficult but award-worthy drama of the season.

Red Flag: Because of the poor early reviews, The Twilight Saga: New Moon becomes my film to be wary of (once again, not including the books’ fans). This is one of those movies that fans are going to try and drag their non-fan friends to because they have to see it, and you might be that non-fan friend, so I’m arming you with things to say when you’re being roped.

Box Office Prediction: There’s an old saying in the world of box-office predictions and by old I mean circa 2008: don’t bet against Edward and Bella. The Twilight Saga: New Moon will be the second poorly reviewed movie in a row to dominate the box office and it will do so with ease. With last year’s film making $70 M, I predict at least that much if not more. This film will not take a step back, that’s for sure. For all the people that won’t be fooled twice, the Twi-hard army has gained twice as many new followers.

None of the other movies have enough to compete with last week’s champion, 2012, so expect another good weekend for the disaster flick at about $25-30 million. No. 3 will belong to A Christmas Carol. At this point, the closer it gets to Christmas, the stronger the legs will get for the animated film. It only dropped 25 percent in its second weekend, which is very little. Look for $15-20 million there.

Next should be new release The Blind Side. With decent reviews, real-world sports ties and Sandra Bullock, $15 M should be possible at the least. If I had to pick a dark horse to come up and surprise, this could be it, but it seems doubtful that it could upset “Carol.”

Finally, as mediocre as Planet 51 might be, the positioning is ideal with the weekend before Thanksgiving and kids have school off as early as Monday in some cases. Even if Precious expands fairly wide, it doesn’t seem likely to outdo it. I’m going to downplay this one, however, and predict it for $8-10 M. With “Carol” as competition and the fact that space-based animation films don’t do all that well unless they’re named WALL*E (take last month's Astro Boy for instance and previous flops Fly Me to the Moon and Space Chimps.)

1. Twilight Saga: New Moon
2. 2012
3. A Christmas Carol
4. The Blind Side
5. Planet 51

Weekend Preview (11.13.09)

On Dec. 12 in about three years from now, say – 2012 – Roland Emmerich should release a movie called 2009 about all the crazy shit people did when they thought the world was going to end in 2012 because of this movie … and end it with the world being destroyed.

One of those crazy things would be going to see this movie. Rated No. 1 on my list of movies not to see this fall, I could not be more against 2012. My first beef, for those who did not ready those comments, is with the “From the Director of Independence Day” tag for the film. That tells you just how often Roland Emmerich makes a good disaster movie. The thing is over ten years old! (For extra credit, check out this pic below and see if you can guess what movie the poster tags were taken from.)

Next, is that a movie trailer that shows nothing but CGI-blowing up of the entire world is cool, but just for a trailer. If the trailer is any indication, the movie is bound to be preposterous and devoid of a soul. In other words, I don’t want to see an entire movie of John Cusack and friends dodging certain death as they do in the trailer at least five times.

That brings me to another thing. John Cusack? I love the guy, but if I’m looking for the best odds in surviving an apocalypse, I’m not turning to Lloyd f*cking Dobbler. Give me Keanu Reeves before I trust Cusack to save my ass. If the object of the film was to score the cute chick back, then I’ll pick ‘em the other way around.

Anyway, the more legitimate counterpoint for this movie is that it was created for the purpose of blowing shit up. What’s hidden in that last sentence is that it wasn’t a story first. Characters had to have been secondary. The idea was “wouldn’t it be cool if the Mayan apocalypse were true and the world just fell apart and we could destroy every landmark?” and it was followed by “and we’d just follow a group of survivors.” I can’t say for certain, but I’d put money down on it. Movies more concerned with cool CGI effects than good storytelling don’t deserve my attention for the few thrills they offer.

If you’re up for a mind-numbing two and a half hours of buildings going boom, be my guest, but I got enough of that crap from Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen this year. Most of America, however, will vote with their pockets otherwise, especially without any legitimate competition. Pirate Radio is the other wide-ish release and despite being written and directed by Love, Actually creator Richard Curtis, it’s had measly publicity, middle-of-the-road reviews and in general has no draw as a film other than good old rock ‘n roll music.

My Endorsement: If one of the theaters near you happens to be one of the four nationwide that The Fantastic Mr. Fox is opening in this weekend, that’s the only new film worth seeing this weekend. When it comes out in more theaters I’ll give it some more attention, but the Wes Anderson-directed stop-motion film is bound to be the quirkiest and unique family-friendly comedy in ages.

Red Flag: Duh?

Box Office Prediction: It’s easy on weeks like these. Nobody wanted to mess with 2012 and so only Focus Features’ renamed and shoved around Pirate Radio is coming out alongside it. 2012 will easily take the crown and I’m thinking $40 million. Hurts just typing it …

Slide ‘em on down after that. A Christmas Carol should have no problem sticking up there in second place and without taking much of a hit. I expect $20 million or at the least just a few million less.

At No. 3 there’s no reason to believe This Is It would lose any ground to a film below it. For the last two spots, even though they were neck and neck last week, I think word of mouth will keep The Men Who Stare at Goats ahead of The Fourth Kind.

I apologize half-heartedly for not making it out to any new films lately and providing reviews for you all. I’ll try next week to maybe take on “Goats” or something that looks worth the effort. Then again I think that’s part of what makes my blog cool. I’ve got to make decision about movies just like most of you.

In the meantime, if I were you, I’d scroll down and read my Holiday Preview and just get jacked up for the big movies of the season.

Weekend Preview (11.6.09)

A Christmas Carol - The Box - The Men Who Stare at Goats - The Fourth Kind

There’s some pretty thick competition at the movies this weekend as we head down the final stretch of the fall season and face the Holidays head on. So the question is, how early do you like your Christmas?

Disney is guessing now. They bet you think Halloween was so last Saturday. They’re siding with the retailers, who are getting ready to fill you heads with Holiday advertising and will gladly pull the trigger early if America overwhelmingly says “Bring on Christmas” and drops its dollars on A Christmas Carol this weekend.

I’m siding against that idea and I’m willing to say – hoping – that A Christmas Carol will suffer at the box office as a result.

We live in a society that over the last several years has basically said F*@% transitions. School supplies hit shelves in July, the Easter Bunny craps eggs all over the leftover Valentine’s Day cards and Christmas apparently starts before Thanksgiving. Retail businesses, among other things, have tried more and more to tell us what we want when we want it. I see A Christmas Carol as merely the latest symptom.

I think Disney is really pushing their luck here. Robert Zemeckis’ motion-capture animated films (The Polar Express, Beowulf) have constantly been reviewed as visually astounding but altogether unimpressive and word so far is “Carol” is no exception. That’s one risk. Second, to think it’s good enough to make a killing on the first weekend of November is a whole other gamble.

Personally, I believe Americans need their space between Halloween and the holidays. School and work fatigue is brewing but not full-on in the first weeks of November, cold weather is on the cusp across the country but not quite here – all these things, I believe, are reasons that the typical person is not ready for Christmas and won’t be ready for the 63rd re-telling of A Christmas Carol.

The good news is that the competition is thick for those who’d like to put off Holiday cheer for a few more weeks. Warner Bros.’ thriller The Box, one of my top-listed fall movies, comes out, as does off-kilter comedy The Men Who Stare At Goats starring George Clooney.

My Endorsement: Although I can’t say I’m surprised by the mixed reviews, I’m a huge fan of the cerebral and out-there filmmaking of Donnie Darko director Richard Kelly, so I expect to enjoy The Box. I’m also a huge advocate of anything Twilight Zone related and the script comes from the story for the episode “Button, Button.” I’m sure it won’t appeal to everyone, but this is my blog, so deal with it.

Red Flag: I’m not so much telling you to avoid seeing A Christmas Carol as I am telling you to wait until later. I don’t think it will be that bad – I happen to love that timeless story concept – but it doesn’t seem worthy of rushing out to the theaters right away. I’m just not in the mood yet for Christmas and I don’t think most of you are either. As for kids, I don’t think this movie is geared for them all that much either.

Box Office Prediction: This was one of the tougher weeks to sort out. Disney is going hardcore with a 3600+ theater release for A Christmas Carol, at least a thousand more theaters than the other new releases, next up being The Box with 2600. I expect “Box” to take in at least $20 million and my inclination would be to pick it over “Carol” if the two were on even footing, but they’re just not, so A Christmas Carol it is, though I’ll gladly be proven wrong, America. I’m going to guess close to $30 million for the Dickens’ CG revamp.

That aside, I’m confident in The Box coming in at No. 2, especially after what a similar target audience did with Law Abiding Citizen. It’s going to sweep up the teenagers at PG-13 and the brilliant choice of Cameron Diaz will make it easier for a female audience to agree to.

For No. 3 and No. 4, I’m going with some returners. I expect Michael Jackson film This Is It to lock in at three with somewhere between $15 - $20 million and I think last week’s second-place finisher Paranormal Activity will stay up in the Top 5 for the fifth weekend in a row because it’s only its second full weekend in full release.

No. 5 is where I’m sliding in The Men Who Stare at Goats. Although I don’t doubt the financial pull of George Clooney, this all male cast and quirky vibe is not going to make it tons of money. I’m comparing it to The Informant! from back in September, which made a cool $10 million, so I think around there, maybe a smidge more. It will finish very closely with “Activity.”

As you can see, I’m not being to kind to horror newcomer The Fourth Kind considering the parallels the marketing has tried to draw with “Activity” and the fact that despite what horror producers believe, Milla Jovovich does not sell tickets. I do see it coming up with $7-8 million, however, good enough to slide it ahead of the rest of last week’s Top 5: Law Abiding Citizen, Couples Retreat and Where the Wild Things Are.

Weekend at a Glance (10.30.09)

As far as predicting goes, it’s pretty easy when one movie comes out in full release the entire weekend because everyone fears competing with it. The theme of today’s post is “Don’t **** with Michael Jackson.”

You already read about my thoughts on the film about Michael Jackson’s concert preparations called This Is It. One thing I was sure to mention, was that it wasn’t going to stop millions of people from going and if you think it would still be this way if he hadn’t died, you’re out of your mind. This would air as a television special on PBS if Jackson were still alive.

Luckily, this saves me from creating another movie poster picture for this week. Instead, I give you this:

My Endorsement: Obviously I can’t endorse This Is It, but if you’re cool with it, reviews have been positive, so I’m sure it wouldn’t be a waste of your money depending on how you define waste. The only other new film being released in any nation-wide capacity is the limited release of The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day. I’m not sure if it looks all that great and it can’t be better than the original by virtue of the fact that Willam Defoe isn’t in it, but it should be entertaining to say the least. I’m sure Troy Duffy has plenty new creative action sequences whipped up.

Red Flag: I can’t really issue my warning notice to This Is It either, so I’m going to jump back to last week and tell you not to see Saw VI if you’re looking for a scary movie to go along with Halloween weekend. The film only made $14 million last weekend, which means that “Saw” fans have to be disinterested and if they’re disinterested, then you should stay the heck away.

Box Office Prediction: Well, this is a great weekend to rebound from my first loss of my rookie predicting season. This Is It will be record-breaking in many regards this weekend I’m sure. We’re not talking all-time box office necessarily, but it could break overseas opening weekend records and will surely be the highest-grossing film ever released in October.

After that, I would just say slide last week’s films down, but it’s not that cut and dry. For Paranormal Activity and Saw VI, however, it sure is. With Halloween weekend among us, you can’t doubt the power of a horror movie, so I’m keeping them at No. 2 and No. 3 despite “Saw” finishing close to Where the Wild Things Are.

“Wild Things” should finish at No. 4 easily, but at No. 5 I’m going to make a daring prediction. Looking at the way Law Abiding Citizen dropped off last week as compared to Couples Retreat, I think “Retreat” is going to eek it out to stay at No. 5. There’s a little risk to that, but it’s the only film appealing to the date crowd still and I think “Citizen’s” audience is running out.

In summary:

1. This Is It
2. Paranormal Activity
3. Saw VI
4. Where the Wild Things Are
5. Couples Retreat